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Sunday, March 24, 2024

The Surprising Returns of the Euro Stoxx 50 - No AI is used in this post.

I'm surprised because I haven't looked at this index for years! Too much focus on the FTSE, CAC-40 and DAX and I missed the bigger picture-and a bigger picture it is! Here's the normalized performance of the nearby Euro Stoxx 50 futures contract (nearby symbol FXM24) compared to the E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract (nearby symbol ESM24) since the 6/22/1998 inception of the FX and back adjusted for rolls:


FXn = Nearby Euro Stoxx 50 back adjusted
ESn = Nearby E-Mini S&P 500 back adjusted
Source: barchart.com
Normalized where 6/22/1998 (FX inception date) = 1000

WHAT a surprise TO ME (I'm sure smarter managers have known this all along). Under almost all conditions, given almost any holding period, FX BEATS ES! FX beats ES in 15 of the 26 years of its existence!


Based on the above, it is ok to overweight the Euro Stoxx 50.