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Tuesday, September 19, 2023

What happened to Crude Oil Zero?

 With crude oil futures on a non-stop tear since Aug 24 and, now, above $90 a barrel ...

Crude Oil WTI Nov 23 Screenshot
Source Barchart.com

... What happened to the march to zero? In a way, similar to food prices, THIS WAR HAS TO END and Ukraine has to win! So far, after a good start, it's become a quagmire--a quagmire with inflationary consequences for energy and food prices and more. 

The demographics of the economy hasn't changed but the geopolitical consequences of a prolonged stalemate will catapault commodity prices and general inflation while eroding U.S. influence around the world. As a bad joke goes, Americans are ok with wars as long as WE start them. Iraq/Afghanistan lasted 20 years with little pushback. 

Americans are NOT ok with this war. If we have the might, can't we just crush Putin's forces? Or why do we hold back? Of course, its a delicate balance between supporting an ally and engaging U.S. forces in a war on Russia. Bush One actually did this. It was American forces that removed the Iraqi invader from Kuwait but left Iraq intact. Can we do this again?

So, the original call still stands. When this war ends, the leverage of OPEC+ diminishes and the real economiy will take over.