S&P Largest YTD Decline Since 1939

 Here's the chart for the S&P 500 stock index Jan thru April return since inception:

Source: Yahoo Finance

2022 is the third worst year on record.  Note there are 95 years in the period and in 65 or 68% of them, total year returns were higher than the Jan-Apr return. 

Considering the 10 worst Jan-Apr returns, well, 1932 was in the teeth of the depression and STILL the market recovered 50%! '39 was the dawn of WWII and again had a smart recovery. Today's 14% loss is an unknown but the historical 68% may be a good omen. '41 and '42 were when we were not sure about winning WWII. '70 was a recovery year. 2020 had a major reversal and may be the source of the extreme optimism coming into today. '73 was inflation. '60 recovered and '62 was the Kennedy steel strike. 

Historical odds are that 2022 will end up BETTER than today's levels. Below are ALL the S&P500 Jan-Apr returns in worst to best order. 

Why "cherry pick" these time periods? They are not cherry picked. This is Yahoo Finance data for the S&P 500 since inception in 1928. My spreadsheet is available upon request. See my shared items in thinkorwsim:          http://tos.mx/ICQelj3          http://tos.mx/np1uoya

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Send request to gdrahal@outlook.com to follow this blog and for additional information. 

© 2022 George Rahal