Commodities YTD Up 30%-50%

 While the major commodity indexes are YTD up 30%-50%,

the sector returns reveal more about this year's price behavior. 

The steady march of oil prices from extraordinary lows plus covid scarcity has underpinned the 180% rise in energy. Remember, roughly one year ago the crude oil price was BELOW ZERO! The 20% rise in agriculture markets is actually reflective of the "almost-post" Covid demand shock. Gold has been flat to down, to spite the inflation hedge talkers.  And bitcoin, for good measure, is giving us the price and value of vapor - right in line with today's GOP politics. 

As the economy normalizes, as fewer hold out against vaccinations, as rationality returns to American political discourse, markets WILL moderate. Or not. It's a bet on future conditions, especially the future of rationality, science and democracy. 

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© 2021 George Rahal.