This post compares the general vote difference or margin (and therefore the nation's divide) of Presidential elections from 1824* to 2020. Red bars show the five elections where the winner LOST the popular vote!
For instance, in 2020, Biden received 4.5% more votes than Trump. In 2016, Clinton received 2.2% more votes than Trump, and she lost the electoral college! In 1844, James K. Polk beat Henry Clay by only 1.5%.
The lower the win percentage or margin, the greater the "divide". Of the 50 elections listed, 16 of them were "closer" than 4.5% implying for over 60 years of the republic, the nation was MORE divided than today!
The average election margin is 9%. The biggest win (excepting earlier unopposed elections) was the 30% margin of Calvin Coolidge over John W. Davis in 1924.
CLOSEST ELECTIONS SINCE 1824:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL VOTE TALLIES SINCE 1824:
In sum, despite media claims to the contrary, the general vote tallies do not support claims of extreme divide. The parity in Congress, the 50-50 Senate and 222-211 House, a topic for another post, apparently does! If markets like divided government, the data, as is usual with markets, is decidedly mixed.
Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.
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