Deo Vindice

Not since the Confederacy have we had open insurrection and today a DHS alert says this is a risk. Just how divided is the country today? 

My prior post, E Pluribus Unum, indicates 2020 Presidential election results are NOT highly divisive. That same post asked if the 50-50 split in the Senate and the 221-211 split in the House of Representatives indicate historic divisions in Congress. This post will try to answer this question by looking at historical Congressional party splits. 

Wikipedia's article on this subject, Party divisions of United States Congresses, presents historical data in length. Below is a graphic from this article showing Congressional party control since 1855 (click for expanded view):

Blue = Democrat 

Red = Republican 

Upper graph = Percent of Senate Seats 

Lower graph = Percent of House Seats

Higher data points indicate greater party control, the lowest points indicate greater division. Since Roosevelt (90 years ago) control has flipped four times in the House and six times in the Senate. Also, since Roosevelt, only Nixon, Ford and Reagan did not have both a House and Senate of their own party within their term. A quick look at the low Republican majorities and today's low Democrat majority, to me, indicates sharp division.

In prior periods sharp divisions were reversed to large consensus. This appears to be missing today. As to market reaction to national division, if they resort to violence, no good can come to the market. And, as is always the case, only time will tell. 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.