Deo Vindice

Not since the Confederacy have we had open insurrection and today a DHS alert says this is a risk. Just how divided is the country today? 

My prior post, E Pluribus Unum, indicates 2020 Presidential election results are NOT highly divisive. That same post asked if the 50-50 split in the Senate and the 221-211 split in the House of Representatives indicate historic divisions in Congress. This post will try to answer this question by looking at historical Congressional party splits. 

Wikipedia's article on this subject, Party divisions of United States Congresses, presents historical data in length. Below is a graphic from this article showing Congressional party control since 1855 (click for expanded view):

Blue = Democrat 

Red = Republican 

Upper graph = Percent of Senate Seats 

Lower graph = Percent of House Seats

E Pluribus Unum

This post compares the general vote difference or margin (and therefore the nation's divide) of Presidential elections from 1824* to 2020. Red bars show the five elections where the winner LOST the popular vote! 

Lower bars = more division

Red=Winner loses general election

Source: CQGuide to U.S. Elections, data starts 1824 

For instance, in 2020, Biden received 4.5% more votes than Trump. In 2016, Clinton received 2.2% more votes than Trump, and she lost the electoral college! In 1844, James K. Polk beat Henry Clay by only 1.5%. 

The lower the win percentage or margin, the greater the "divide".  Of the 50 elections listed, 16 of them were "closer"  than 4.5% implying for over 60 years of the republic, the nation was MORE divided than today!

The average election margin is 9%. The biggest win (excepting earlier unopposed elections) was the 30% margin of Calvin Coolidge over John W. Davis in 1924. 

CLOSEST ELECTIONS SINCE 1824: 

ELECTION DIVIDE SINCE 1824:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL VOTE TALLIES SINCE 1824:

In sum, despite media claims to the contrary, the general vote tallies do not support claims of extreme divide. The parity in Congress, the 50-50 Senate and 222-211 House, a topic for another post, apparently does! If markets like divided government, the data, as is usual with markets, is decidedly mixed. 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.

America's Economic Ranking In The World

This post compares 2020 GDP, 2020 Unemployment and the 2020 Budget, of the United States (red bars), to the rest of the world. Again, we like to think we are Number One; The Economist Magazine of 16 January 2020, the source of our data, may beg to differ:

Higher bars are better.

The US 2020 GDP growth ranked 13th of 44 countries followed by The Economist. Oddly enough this was the same rank posted by the Wall St. Journal for stock market performance.  Note Egypt GDP bested Taiwan in 2020!

Lower bars are better. 

US unemployment ranked 23 out of the 43 countries posted by The Economist. Thailand, Japan and the Czech Republic had the lowest unemployment rates in the world.

Higher bars are better.

US ranked near the bottom, 37th of 39 countries for our budget deficit, roughly 15% of GDP! Only Brazil (not labeled) and South Africa did worse. Who would figure India would have such a large surplus? Or, the UK would post a balanced budget? 

Note that all countries have different economics, politics, policies and history. If nothing else, these results can temper politician claims of superiority. 

*The number of countries ranked in The Economist tables vary by category. 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.

America's Stock Market Ranking In the World

This post compares the stock market performance of the United States to the rest of the world. We like to think we are Number One; the Wall Street Journal, the source of our data, may beg to differ:

Longer bars are better.

United States 2020 performance is ranked 13th of 37* stocks in the Wall Street Journal. Note that many countries above us have vastly different politics, policies and history. If nothing else, this can temper politician claims of superiority. 

*The Journal table actually includes 36 more countries with lower returns not listed here. Note that the above returns are in USD and local currency, country inflation may account for differences .

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.

WhatUp Bitcoin?

With commodities as dead as can be, we cannot ignore the unprecedented rise of Bitcoin. 

5/11/2015 = 1000

BTC = Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD)

GBTC = Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)

Source: Yahoo Finance

The chart above shows the relative performance of Bitcoin itself, BTC, up14X, as reported by CoinMarketCap.com and Yahoo; and the widely available bitcoin ETF, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, up 6X since the GBTC 5/11/15 inception.

With gold up only double digits, and crude oil a disappointment, GBTC is up over 30% since January 1!  Bitcoin is up more.

With BTC emerging from the lawlessness of Silk Road it has earned a role as the new gold or maybe the dotcom boom all over again. Rising and falling with uncertainty, the mainstream ETF GBTC at $44 a share, at least, may merit a place in anyone's portfolio - no blockchain required. 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.

Commodity Market Lab 2020

2020 saw, on average, metals up 26%, energies down 14% and the rest a touch better, up 2%, at the end of this landmark year. 

Returns = Continuously compounded rates of return

Data Source: Barchart.com

The biggest gainer was silver, up 36%. The worst declines were soybeans, down 29%, and heating oil, down 26%! The commodity indexes did not fail to disappoint. 

12/31/2019 = 1000

SP500 = S&P 500 Stock Index 

BCOM = Bloomberg Excess Return* Commodity Index

GSCI = S&P GSCI Excess Return* Commodity Index

Data Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg.com, SPGlobal.com

While everything fell in the March COVID break, nothing fell like the energy weighted GSCI, down over 50% at the bottom. The recovery was lackluster too, with the GSCI still ending down 25% in 2020. Not even the balanced BCOM could save itself, ending down 4% in 2020. The S&P 500 outpaced them all.

Sadly, both commodity indexes are BELOW their 1990s inception levels.

This may be easily explained by technology advancing far ahead of demand. We produce too much energy, agriculture and metals, even, for prices to rise in the "long run". 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.