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Thursday, November 19, 2020

The COVID Market Break is Over!


Last week, Monday November 16, 2020 at 29950.44 , without fanfare, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fully recovered from the COVID stock market low on 3/23/2020 at 18591.03.


The Dow took 238 days to recover and was the last major stock index to return to its pre pandemic high. Here are the numbers:


These are remarkable numbers. As shown in my 3/12/2020 post in the middle of the COVID market break, Time To Recovery, the historical average for all bear markets since 1900 is 5.6 YEARS peak to peak!  

The difference may be clear: pandemics are limited events. With vaccines on the way, the markets anticipate a full recovery from COVID. With all four major indexes fully recovered, at some point we will start a new cycle, a new break and a new time to recover. 

Sadly, as perhaps indicated by the modest year-to-date returns, the real economy for most people IS NOT RECOVERED. 10 MM unemployed, GDP a fraction of its former self and ever rising income equality may only prove that stock markets are just one measure, a limited measure, of the national welfare.  

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Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.