Full Recovery?

Wednesday's 6/3/2020 $236.69 NASDAQ100 QQQ adjusted closing price marks a FULL RECOVERY from the $168.94 multi-year low of March 16th and exceeding the prior all-time high of $236.48 on February 19th!

QQQ = Invesco QQQ Trust

SPY = SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

IWM = iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Source data: Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices

It took 105 days for the Nasdaq to recover its all time high. Note the S&P 500 ETF SPY is hot on the heels of QQQs recovery. The Russell 2000 represented by the IWM ETF still has a way to go.

Based on yesterday's closes here is where the major indexes and commodities I follow stand:

DJP = iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETN

GCZ20 = December 2020 Gold Futures Contract

CLZ20 = December 2020 Crude Oil Futures Contract

HGZ20 = December 2020 High Grade Copper Futures Contract

Commodity Source data: barchart.com, DJP source date: Yahoo Finance

Note the QQQs are UP 11% year-to-date! The SPY is -2% ytd and -7% from its all time high! Crude Oil is the major laggard, still down about 40% for the year and from its all time high. Copper is well off its high but only -11% year-to-date.  Gold has been the star performer for 2020 but in the last few days has been eclipsed by the QQQ.

Outlook

All these numbers are backward looking but then again, history is all we have and all we have to go on. The long term effects of pandemic and social unrest have yet to be felt. But, so far, this market break is well within historic limits. Note also there may be a major disconnect between the economy and the stock market. I feel confident, with time, one will catch with the other.

Note, right or wrong I use exchange traded index funds to represent the actual indexes/asset classes. We cannot buy indexes but we can buy the etfs. Also, the major broad based etfs very closely match their underlying indexes. Of course, there is no assurance this will continue in the future. This year has been an excellent stress test and, in my opinion, the etfs have passed with flying colors!

As for commodities, the DJP decently represents the pre-eminent Bloomberg Commodity Index and, in my opinion, the December futures are the best possible representative for long term commodity prices. 

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Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.

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