Day 838

May 8th is day 838 since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2017. There have been a number of tweets and news stories about a new Gallup poll showing Trump for the first time with a higher approval rating than Obama at the same time in his term.

Polling is an inexact science just as markets are an inexact science but I always like to see how the stock market averages fared when I read stories like this. Let's fully understand that one person IS NEVER responsible for market and economic performance.  So here goes, in my view, an objective comparison of two very different periods in recent history:

Market Data Source: Yahoo Finance Historical Adjusted Closes.

GDP Source:  https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=19&step=4&isuri=1&1921=flatfiles

Unemployment Source: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

All downloaded 5/9/2019.

First observation is these 16-month returns for the stock indexes are all fantastic. How fantastic for each period is obvious.

One COULD say we are not fair to Trump because the markets have been breaking the last few days, well even using the all time highs, 26828.93 for the Dow and 2945.83 for the S&P, Trump gains stand roughly the same at 30% and 26%, respectively.

Most recent quarterly GDP improved 7 points under Obama. Trump had much higher GDP. The unemployment rate got worse 16 months into Obama's term and is near record lows for Trump.

This post, like Mueller, will not make a verdict on any President. Either way we have to acknowledge that markets and economics are not dependent upon one person.

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.