Here I will compare the TQQQ to its underlying fund, the QQQ. Two caveats: leveraged funds have higher fees and leveraged funds are marketed only as short term investments, that is, the 3X returns apply only to daily moves in the underlying, not for moves longer than one day.
Do the higher fees embedded in the TQQQ erase their supposed excess returns over the plain vanilla QQQ fund? And, what ARE the long term effects of TQQQ? Yahoo data for TQQQ begins 2/11/2010. Here are the results.
The below are continuously compounded rates of return.
| Annualized Returns | ||
| as of 11/29/2017 | ||
| TQQQ | QQQ | |
| 1 month | 107.8% | 17.9% |
| 3 month | 90.2% | -30.4% |
| 6 month | 55.9% | -10.0% |
| 1 year | 81.9% | 14.0% |
| 3 year | 32.7% | 8.8% |
| 5 year | 47.3% | 15.4% |
| Since TQQQ Inception | 27.3% | 9.8% |
* 2010 return is for the period 2/11/2010 to 12/31/2010.
* 2017 return is for the period 1/01/2017 to 11/29/2017.
Risk and Return
| TQQQ | QQQ | |
| 3 year mean | 32.7% | 8.8% |
| 3 year standard deviation | 28.8% | 8.9% |
| 5 year mean | 47.3% | 15.4% |
| 5 year standard deviation | 30.5% | 9.6% |
Conclusion
WOW. TQQQ returns are enormous. The 3 and 5 year returns do deliver 3 times the QQQ. The risk is enormous too-in the 28 to 30% range. The risk adjusted returns, that is, the return delivered per unit of risk is comparable for both funds but the 5 year QQQ return per unit of risk exceeds that of the TQQQ.
The question for most in investors is risk. 9%-10% risk looks reasonable and is found in the QQQs. 29% to 30% found in the TQQQs may be too much to stomach for most investors.
Feel free to post comments.
Disclaimer: The above is not investment advice, is for information purposes only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.
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