Is the Commodity Turnaround Coming?

The monthly value of the VistaCTA basket of 15 commodity futures contracts since 2009 is shown below:

The gaps in the graph represent the annual roll of the current-month basket to the back-month basket, as defined in the VistaCTA rules.  Note the basket rolled higher in 2010, nearly flat in 2011 and slightly lower in 2012.  Some would call 2010 and 2011 "contango" type rolls and 2012 a "backwardation" type roll.  Note also that subsequent price action appears to have nothing to do with the type of roll.

From a start of under $900,000, the value topped out above $1.3MM and now is valued near $960,000. The July 2013 bounce may be sign of better days to come!