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Monday, July 22, 2013

Coffee Flash Boom Crash Crash

Thursday and Friday were banner days for ICE (formerly CSC) coffee futures contracts.  Weeks of price action were compressed in minutes.  Here's the background.

CHART COURTESY OF BARCHART.COM

September Coffee has been in a slow downtrend from $1.60 per pound to $1.20 per pound all year long with two short lived boosts: $1.55 to $1.65 in January and $1.35 to $1.50 in May.  Since mid-June, coffee has been trading around $1.18 to $1.25.  The chart shows a blip on Thursday July 18th to $1.34 followed by Friday's close at $1.2270 per pound.

  Date    Open    High     Low    Last  Chge  ----52 Week----
07/19/13 12790 13025 12175 12270 -485
07/18/13 12750 13400 12665 12755 -40 -------High----
07/17/13 12545 12920 12530 12795 +200 07/23/12 19700
07/16/13 12340 12675 12320 12595 +270 --------Low----
07/15/13 11930 12410 11860 12325 +385 06/20/13 11710
DATA COURTESY OF BARCHART.COM

The dailys do not show how fast and fleeting the trade was on those days. To get a clearer idea of the extent of Thursday's "flash boom crash" and Friday's crash we need to look at the intra-day charts:



ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF BARCHART.COM

Oddly enough while the above Barcharts do not show it, $1.34 did print and it was fleeting. The boom started with the decisive trade above $1.30 at 7:21 AM (US Central Time) and then the $1.34 touch at 7:27 AM.  Only limit orders need apply and not the $1.34 limit!  The first crash was the 400 point move to $1.27 at 12:10 PM and the final crash was the second 400 point decline to the $1.2275 per pound level near Friday's 1:00 PM close.

The dollar value of the 37,500 pound coffee futures contract at Friday's closing price of $1.2275 per pound was $46,031.25.  The exchange minimum margin for coffee as of Friday was (and still is) $2,750 per contract or 6% of the contract value.  A 7 cent move in coffee (the daily range on Thursday and Friday) equals $2,625 or roughly one's entire margin requirement.  Woe to the speculator trading coffee on exchange minimum margins.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Is the Commodity Turnaround Coming?

The monthly value of the VistaCTA basket of 15 commodity futures contracts since 2009 is shown below:


The gaps in the graph represent the annual roll of the current-month basket to the back-month basket, as defined in the VistaCTA rules.  Note the basket rolled higher in 2010, nearly flat in 2011 and slightly lower in 2012.  Some would call 2010 and 2011 "contango" type rolls and 2012 a "backwardation" type roll.  Note also that subsequent price action appears to have nothing to do with the type of roll.

From a start of under $900,000, the value topped out above $1.3MM and now is valued near $960,000. The July 2013 bounce may be sign of better days to come!