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Tuesday, May 28, 2013

"Flash Boom" in Soybeans

Thursday, May 23rd was an extraordinary day in soybean futures.  See the July Soybean futures charts below:



Date Open High Low Last Chge
5/24/2013 14900 15000 14720 14762 -232
5/23/2013 14930 15410 14880 14994 52
5/22/2013 14750 14944 14710 14942 160
5/21/2013 14630 14790 14564 14782 136
5/20/2013 14490 14650 14454 14644 160
Charts and Data Courtesy of Barchart.com

On apparently wild and unsubstantiated rumors (see Chris Lehner's excellent commentary on InsideFutures.com) beans had a "flash boom" (the reverse of a "flash crash") where a market trades extremely high for a short period and immediately returns to its prior level.  

The 10-minute chart, below, offers a sense of how beans traded in minutes from the high $14s to $15.41 a bushel and back.  $15.40 highs have not been seen since the drought scorched market of last September.    


In the span of minutes, soybeans gap sharply higher to a peak of $15.41 per bushel. Subsequently beans give up all their gains to close nearly unchanged and, the next day, move lower again.  

I have no first hand knowledge but I believe that computerized newsreader algos were behind or significantly contributed to the day's "flash boom".  High freq algo traders trade the story and ask questions later.  Most human traders would try and find facts and then trade or, at worst, the rumor trade would not have been so extreme.

Who gets hurt in a "flash boom'"? The same people who get hurt in a flash crash! Stops are unnecessarily run, margin calls are unnecessarily met, cash is drained from the market. The market structure and bona fide hedgers and smaller specs are damaged-all for no reason.

While good for exchanges, hedge funds, high freqs and algos, flash crashes and flash booms may only hurt the proper function of the commodities market.  Open outcry and limited trading hours have worked for commercials and speculators for over 100 years.  It may be time to revisit aspects of today's electronic trading.  









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