Two Years of Commodity Drawdown

As of this month, the commodity markets have been in drawdown for two years.  While the commodity market may have a number of sectors, a good case can be made that precious metals, especially gold, may be the dominant factor.  Gold peaked in April of 2011 and has been falling since then. 

As gold goes, so goes the commodity market.

This won't be a quantitative post but mostly a qualitative observation on the role of gold in the commodity universe.  Nearly all commodity indexes and commodity index tracking vehicles also peaked two years ago April and have also been falling for two years. 

In addition to metals, the two other aggregates are energy and agriculture.  Neither seems able to offset the overarching effect of gold.  Last summer's drought, while a disaster for growers, brought short term relief to the indexes and longs. Summer's sharp upward move has been completely retraced in soybeans and nearly so in corn and wheat. Energy has not been much better.  Weekly crude has been in a slow gradual coil pattern around the $90 handle. 

If gold rules the commodity roost, then where goes gold? My outlook, unsurprisingly, is bearish and remains bearish until I see more than a $100 move to the upside from December Gold's $1505.60 close.