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Friday, March 29, 2013

What A Difference A Day Makes and Will Make

On the heels of bearish USDA crop reports, grains and soybeans traded limit down on the last day of the month and, likewise, the last day of the quarter. 

May Corn closed down its 40c limit.  May Wheat and May Soybeans both closed down a penny off their 50c limit. Today, Good Friday, is a market holiday, with the term "holiday" used lightly.  Given their hard closes, it is possible these markets can open Monday morning limit down again. 

For those new to commodities, a "limit" move means the market cannot be traded.  If you are long and the market is "locked limit down" against you, you cannot get out.  It has to trade above its limit or you have to wait another day.  Commodity markets have been operating like this over a century and it works.  Without limits, there is no "cooling off period" and you can end up having events like a "flash crash" which the stock markets have learned the hard way. 

What's interesting about this move is its timing.  Yes, limit moves frequently come after crop reports but coming before a holiday with those caught having to wait three days or more before they can get out, well, that is somewhat remarkable.

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